Did you know that 3rd grade reading scores are highly predictive of later-life outcomes? It’s true.
My favorite paper on this comes from Dan Goldhaber, Malcolm Wolff, and Tim Daly, who looked at how accurate early measures of achievement are in predicting longer-term academic outcomes. In a 2021 paper, they used data from North Carolina, Massachusetts and Washington State and found, “consistent and very strong relationships between 3rd grade test scores and high school tests, advanced course-taking, and graduation.”
The signals are strong enough by 3rd grade that educators and policymakers should act on them. Goldhaber’s team concluded that, “early student struggles on state tests are a credible warning signal for schools and systems that make the case for additional academic support in the near term, as opposed to assuming that additional years of instruction are likely to change a student’s trajectory. Educators and families should take 3rd grade test results seriously and respond accordingly; while they may not be determinative, they provide a strong indication of the path a student is on.”
Unfortunately, math gaps start to show up almost immediately in state testing data. To help visualize this issue, I created the interactive tool below. Users can click on a state to see its average math proficiency rates in grades 3-8. In states that make the data available, users can also sort by specific student groups. The data come via AssessmentHQ.org, which pulls directly from state websites.
Take California, for instance. In 2024, they deemed 46% of their 3rd graders proficient in math. If that doesn’t seem sufficiently urgent, note that California’s math problems get worse over time, with just 32% of 8th graders scoring at proficient or above.
Now, the numbers vary by state and it’s possible that not all state assessments are fully aligned across grades. That is, a decline could be for performance drops or just because the tests get harder. Still, these are the official state numbers, and they’re even more stark for certain groups. Staying in California, the state deemed just 27% of Black 3rd grade students as proficient last year, compared to 60% of White students and 74% of Asian students.
Policymakers should try to erase these gaps head-on, as soon as possible. Without dramatic action to address these early gaps, no amount of policy changes at the high school level will fix the fact that only one-third of California’s 8th graders are ready for high school-level work. For example, creating an alternative pathway for high school students who aren’t ready for rigorous coursework may paper over the problem, but it won’t erase the early gaps. In state after state, math gaps emerge early, and schools and policymakers should be trying to tackle them head on.
Math Gaps Emerge Early. Students Deserve Early Interventions
Did you know that 3rd grade reading scores are highly predictive of later-life outcomes? It’s true.
My favorite paper on this comes from Dan Goldhaber, Malcolm Wolff, and Tim Daly, who looked at how accurate early measures of achievement are in predicting longer-term academic outcomes. In a 2021 paper, they used data from North Carolina, Massachusetts and Washington State and found, “consistent and very strong relationships between 3rd grade test scores and high school tests, advanced course-taking, and graduation.”
The signals are strong enough by 3rd grade that educators and policymakers should act on them. Goldhaber’s team concluded that, “early student struggles on state tests are a credible warning signal for schools and systems that make the case for additional academic support in the near term, as opposed to assuming that additional years of instruction are likely to change a student’s trajectory. Educators and families should take 3rd grade test results seriously and respond accordingly; while they may not be determinative, they provide a strong indication of the path a student is on.”
Unfortunately, math gaps start to show up almost immediately in state testing data. To help visualize this issue, I created the interactive tool below. Users can click on a state to see its average math proficiency rates in grades 3-8. In states that make the data available, users can also sort by specific student groups. The data come via AssessmentHQ.org, which pulls directly from state websites.
Take California, for instance. In 2024, they deemed 46% of their 3rd graders proficient in math. If that doesn’t seem sufficiently urgent, note that California’s math problems get worse over time, with just 32% of 8th graders scoring at proficient or above.
Now, the numbers vary by state and it’s possible that not all state assessments are fully aligned across grades. That is, a decline could be for performance drops or just because the tests get harder. Still, these are the official state numbers, and they’re even more stark for certain groups. Staying in California, the state deemed just 27% of Black 3rd grade students as proficient last year, compared to 60% of White students and 74% of Asian students.
Policymakers should try to erase these gaps head-on, as soon as possible. Without dramatic action to address these early gaps, no amount of policy changes at the high school level will fix the fact that only one-third of California’s 8th graders are ready for high school-level work. For example, creating an alternative pathway for high school students who aren’t ready for rigorous coursework may paper over the problem, but it won’t erase the early gaps. In state after state, math gaps emerge early, and schools and policymakers should be trying to tackle them head on.
Chad Aldeman
Recent posts
A Low-Cost, Highly Effective Math Program
Let the March Mathness Begin
Automatic Enrollment Policies Check All the Boxes
Virginia Pushes to Accelerate Students in Math